"Affected by indicators lagging behind, rising prices and other reasons, China's PV installed capacity in 2021 is less than expected, from 55-65GW to 45-55GW." Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said at the 2021 China Photovoltaic industry annual conference held on December 15 that "the industry is generally optimistic about next year, and China's photovoltaic installed capacity in 2022 May increase to more than 75GW, driven by the huge reserve of photovoltaic power generation projects."
The output of silicon wafers, batteries and modules increased by more than 50% year-on-year
Wang Bohua pointed out that compared with previous years, the influence and social attention of the photovoltaic industry have increased rapidly this year. First of all, the policy promotes the development of photovoltaic, and the top-level goals and policies introduced by the state bring historic opportunities to the photovoltaic industry. The central government put forward the goal of carbon reaching the peak of carbon neutrality, distributed photovoltaic county promotion and "thousands of households Muguang action" hot progress, photovoltaic into the homes of ordinary people. Secondly, the position of the photovoltaic industry has been significantly improved, and the central government has proposed for the first time to build a new power system with new energy as the main body; Photovoltaic, together with the "Rejuvenation" high-speed rail, domestic commercial aircraft, and a new generation of carrier rockets, were featured on the commemorative stamps of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Finally, many enterprises entered the office across the border, including Sinopec into distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, China Gas into distributed photovoltaic, photovoltaic building integration, Zhuhai Port into photovoltaic, energy storage, Shanmei International photovoltaic cells, Volkswagen layout solar power plant and so on.
From the perspective of manufacturing, although the domestic market has not developed as expected, the overseas market has achieved rapid growth, which in turn has driven the manufacturing side to continue to maintain rapid growth. The first three quarters of China's polysilicon production 360,000 tons, an increase of 24.1%; The output of silicon wafers was 165GW, an increase of 54.2%. Battery production was 147GW, an increase of 54.6%, and module production was 130GW, an increase of 58.5%.
It is worth mentioning that the average conversion efficiency of PERC single crystal battery mass production increased from 22.8% in 2020 to 23.1% in 2021, reaching a maximum of 23.56%. Since 2014, the efficiency of crystalline silicon cell laboratories in China's enterprises/research institutions has broken records 42 times, and it has broken records 11 times in 2021.
From the perspective of the development of the photovoltaic installed capacity market, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China from January to October 2021 was 29.31GW, an increase of 34% year-on-year, of which 19.03GW was distributed, accounting for 64.9%; Photovoltaic power generation of 273.8 billion KWH, an increase of 22.8%, accounting for 4% of the total power generation, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, the average utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation of 98%; The installed capacity of household PV was 13.6GW, of which the installed capacity of household PV accounted for 51.5% of the total installed capacity in October, accounting for more than half of the total installed capacity for the first time, and distributed PV ushered in the market space for large-scale development.
From the photovoltaic products export situation, from January to October, China's photovoltaic products exports of about 23.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 44.6%; The export volume of photovoltaic modules was 82.2GW, an increase of 32.2%. Photovoltaic module exports of US $19.83 billion, an increase of 44.8%.
Traditional PV markets such as Europe, Japan and Australia maintain strong demand, emerging markets such as Pakistan and Greece continue to emerge, and the GW-class market has developed from 11 in 2018 to the current 20. Wang Bohua stressed that the photovoltaic market has changed from mainly in Europe to flowering all over the world, and the impact resistance of China's photovoltaic industry to international trade has been greatly enhanced.
The global PV installed capacity will reach 150-170GW
The United States has returned to the Paris Agreement, the European Union's 2030 Climate Target Plan has raised its greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 from the original 40% to 55%, and Japan's Global Warming Countermeasures Promotion Law has clarified the Japanese government's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The pace of the global energy transition is accelerating. According to the International Energy Agency, as of September 2021, 52 countries and the European Union have adopted some form of net-zero emissions target, accounting for two-thirds of global GDP. Of these, 16 countries have included the target in law, five have introduced legislation, and the rest have announced the target in official policy documents.
On the path to zero carbon, renewable energy will become the dominant energy source. The International Renewable Energy Agency proposed in the "World Energy Transition Outlook" that the proportion of global renewable energy generation will increase to 90% in 2050, of which photovoltaic and wind power account for 63%, and the global photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 14,000 GW.
Wang Bohua predicted that the global photovoltaic new installed capacity will reach 150-170GW in 2021, but he also pointed out that the international photovoltaic trade situation is grim and complex, and the form of trade barriers tends to be diversified.
Europe and the United States "double reverse" investigation, the United States "201" act, South Korea's low-carbon certification qualification, India levied 25% and 40% high tariffs on photovoltaic cells and modules... In addition to the previous "traditional means", trade barriers have emerged in new forms. The US Senate's $3.5 trillion budget supports a ban on renewable energy projects using materials from China; The EU carbon tariff policy (trial operation in 2023) requires that products exported to the EU pay for the carbon emissions generated during production; Foreign companies are building intellectual property barriers. Hanwha Q-Cells has filed patent infringement lawsuits against China Jinkosolar and Longi in the U.S., Germany, and Australia, and Maxeon has filed patent lawsuits against Artis in Japan.
In addition, the high overseas freight has also brought a greater impact on China's photovoltaic enterprises. The price of 40-foot high container has skyrocketed from $2,000 in previous years to more than $10,000, and in addition to the relatively stable price of Japan and South Korea routes, the price of many routes in South America, North America and Europe has increased by 5 to 10 times. It is reported that the shipping cost of a company in Longji alone in previous years is as high as billions of yuan, and the impact of the cost on the sales of corporate products can be seen.
Photovoltaic manufacturing industry international competition intensifies
Supply chain price rise is a common concern of the industry. According to statistical information from January to September 2021, some raw materials such as industrial silicon, EVA resin, soda, electrolytic aluminum, and chips are in short supply and rising prices due to dual control of energy consumption, and the chemical and metallurgical industries are particularly prominent. Among them, the price of silicon rose by 165%, the price of silicon wafers rose by 62.6%, the price of components rose by 10.8%, and the price of batteries rose by 20%.
So far, prices have fallen across the supply chain, says Mr Wang. Affected by indicators lagging behind, rising prices and other reasons, China's PV installed capacity in 2021 is less than expected, from 55-65GW to 45-55GW. However, the industry is generally optimistic about next year, 2022 China's photovoltaic installed capacity in photovoltaic power generation projects, driven by the huge reserve, may increase to more than 75GW.
China's photovoltaic power generation market reserve scale can be described as "strong". According to incomplete statistics, the allocation scale of photovoltaic power stations in the provinces in 2021 alone is as high as 89.28GW, and the scale of large bases has been announced to exceed 60GW. The International Energy Agency predicts in the "Carbon Neutral Roadmap for China's Energy Industry" that China will add an average of 200GW of PV installed capacity per year from 2030 to 2060.
In the face of the booming photovoltaic application market, Wang Bohua reminded that the intensified international competition in the photovoltaic manufacturing industry is a problem that needs attention in the future.
In recent years, the news about foreign photovoltaic companies is mostly bankruptcy, acquisition and so on. However, the impact of the epidemic and the high cost of international logistics have made countries and enterprises pay more attention to the localization of production and supply chains, while reducing the dependence of the economy on external demand. Multinationals will diversify their supply chains to minimize their dependence on a single economy. At present, the United States has proposed the return of manufacturing, Japan has proposed the industrial chain reform subsidy program, and India has proposed a production-related incentive program.
Wang Bohua stressed that the photovoltaic industry, as one of the key strategic emerging industries in the energy revolution, has become the focus of countries to build a circular system within the supply chain.
In the United States alone, for example, the American Solar Manufacturing Act is being promoted, which will comprehensively review the external dependence of the supply chain, with the intention of establishing a "reliable" supply chain. The United States passed a $1.75 trillion economic stimulus bill, of which $550 billion will be used for the new energy industry. The US REC will restart the 20,000 tons of granular silicon plant in 2023.
At the same time, the new enterprises will have an impact on the industrial competition pattern. "From a historical point of view, cross-border cutting has never been interrupted, 2008-2011 was the peak of cross-industry into the photovoltaic field, now is repeating; From the current situation, many companies are entering into photovoltaic from other fields and achieving success; In terms of process, the photovoltaic industry has been rising in waves, and new entrants have latecomer advantages." Wang Bohua said, "The new entrants intensified the industry competition, the traditional photovoltaic enterprises have brought great challenges, the future industrial pattern may bring fundamental changes."
